FINANCIAL PLANNING – Winter is Coming

The following transcription was from the Bulletproof Youtube channel. Here is the https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVcHD69wlEM

Craig Spodak
0:00:00
We believe that even though they say inflation is not coming, we actually believe it will be because you can't print trillions of dollars. We think inflation is coming. We do. We're borrowing money now. We're borrowing.

Peter Boulden
0:00:22
Is that the intro, Craig?

Craig Spodak
0:00:23
No, it's just funny that we were saying that like a year ago. That could be fine.

Peter Boulden
0:00:28
We can just go right into talking. Why does it always have to be, hey, welcome to the Bulletproof Dental Practice.

Craig Spodak
0:00:34
But you just did that, boom, you just did that. So that is done. No, actually, I'm glad that you are bringing that up about like our prognostication, not that we're always right from being financial gurus and we are not financial gurus.

Peter Boulden
0:00:46
But our ear to the ground is to the ground because you and I do have friends who are in financial sectors, been successful in real estate, have been successful in finance, or hedge fund managers, the Peter Malouf, those kind of things. And so sometimes people listening to this, like, I thought this was a dental podcast. Well, guess what? You don't live and function your dental practice in a silo. And I know you know that. It's not an echo chamber, but it exists. It exists in a macro environment, right? Where there's wars, potential, where there's recessions, potential, where there's just, you know, inflation.

Craig Spodak
0:01:22
Well, dentistry is actually correlated to the S&P. You know, so as the S&P rises, dental practices do better. When the S&P falls and the stock market falls, dental practices do worse. We're fairly correlated. Dental expenditures go and-

Peter Boulden
0:01:35
Well, I think it's fairly correlated

Craig Spodak
0:01:36
to discretionary income, right? Right, which is correlated to the stock market.

Peter Boulden
0:01:40
Yes, when the S&P is going up, even though it's not cash money in someone's state, they feel quote unquote richer because of the equity that has been gained by that gain. Unfortunately, it doesn't translate until you sell, just like we were talking before we hit record about the house pricing in Florida. And it's great, everyone's saying, look at the equity in this hope that my house, Florida has gone crazy. But guess what? You don't get to see that money until you actually hit sell. And if you do hit sell, you're probably going to do a 1031 into something else, buy a different

Craig Spodak
0:02:15
house, which it's all going to be relative. So it's feelings. Yeah, it's not a 1031 though with the house, but yeah, I agree.

Peter Boulden
0:02:21
Yeah, sorry, you're right.

Craig Spodak
0:02:22
It's feelings. And just so the people that don't understand what he's saying, Peter's talking about a very cool loophole in the tax code that's specific for real estate investors. It's very cool.

Peter Boulden
0:02:33
What I'm doing right now, as a matter of fact, Craig,

Craig Spodak
0:02:35
first time ever utilizing a 1031 tax-free exchange. Yeah, so just to dumb that down, section 1031 allows for people that have a real estate investment to sell it and not pay the capital gains tax that you would owe so long as you buy another qualified real estate investment. And it's really neat. Not that you're never paying taxes on it, but he's actually taking the proceeds that he would have paid taxes on it, investing it, and then he will make money on that. Yeah. So for instance, if I bought the building for 500,000 20 years ago, and now I'm selling it for a million, I don't pay taxes on the 500,000, right? I don't pay taxes on the difference of the basis yet. You get to carry it forward at a 1031 in a tax-free exchange, which is a totally different idea. I thought it was like, oh yeah, I'm just going to do a 1031. You actually have to find a 1031 intermediary.

Peter Boulden
0:03:25
Did you know this?

Craig Spodak
0:03:26
Yeah, I do. And you have to identify the property at a certain period of time. Identify the property at 45 days and six months. There's a bunch of… and you can never touch the money. I thought it would hit my account and I could hold on to it. Nope. If you touch it, it validates it essentially. But essentially what you got, Peter, just to dumb it down for anybody that might not understand this, you got an interest-free loan from the IRS. You owe that money. Had you not done it, you owe that money this fiscal year. Let's just say this next property that you own, and you own it for 20 years, the money that the 500 grand you owed in that example will build over time because now you've invested it, it will grow. So it's a wild instrument. It's a wild thing. I mean, I know there's a lot of people that are him and Haub or the real estate people, whether it be Donald Trump or whoever is the target that they exploit the tax code. They don't exploit it, buddy. They don't exploit anything. The taxes are written, the tax code is written such that it rewards the investor because the people that wrote the tax code believe that your real estate investment will do more for the economy. So you're incentivized to hire people, grow businesses, buy real estate.

Peter Boulden
0:04:38
It's the private market stimulus is what it is.

Craig Spodak
0:04:41
Right. Just like the ESOP. We've talked about that before, the Employee Stock Ownership Program. So when you see a company that's employee-owned and the company can actually delegate a percentage of its shares to the employees and then you can actually put your company in a tax deferred situation where your company will grow into perpetuity without owing federal taxes because it usurps the tax, it goes around the tax section. So there are things that are available to us and they're not exploiting anything. It's just that you take advantage of the laws that are there.

Peter Boulden
0:05:16
It's interesting, Craig.

Peter Boulden
0:05:17
I'm not a very, I'm a good acquirer of things. I am not a very good relinquisher of things. I get very romantic about the things that I own. Buildings and I get romantic about, oh, look at all the memories there, or even Bitcoin. I'm not a very good seller of them. You fall in love with your assets.

Craig Spodak
0:05:34
I do, I do.

Peter Boulden
0:05:36
That's rule number one.

Craig Spodak
0:05:37
I do this for you.

Craig Spodak
0:05:39
Confirmational bias.

Craig Spodak
0:05:40
Yeah, yeah, you definitely have confirmation. We all do.

Peter Boulden
0:05:44
Yeah.

Craig Spodak
0:05:45
I love your assets too. Remember when you wanted to part with one of your buildings

Craig Spodak
0:05:48
and I'm like, dude, I love it.

Peter Boulden
0:05:49
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you walked me off the cliff. I know.

Craig Spodak
0:05:53
Today though, I wish I didn't. I think it's important though to talk about, if we're talking about a macroeconomic climate and things that are happening. Obviously everyone's fully up to speed on inflation, so we're not gonna talk about that, but all inflation is, unfortunately, is a tax. You know, and it's a tax on regular living.

Peter Boulden
0:06:13
It's just a hidden tax.

Peter Boulden
0:06:14
And that is-

Craig Spodak
0:06:15
Well, it's a tax on those who don't have assets. Correct. Because it's a benefit to the people in the asset class. So when we started to hit record here, I was listening to one of our older podcasts. It might have been about a year ago. And you and I are talking about borrowing money, buying assets, inflation is coming. And that's at the time when everybody was like, there's no inflation. There's no inflation. Don't worry people.

Peter Boulden
0:06:42
Yeah, they were reporting 2%.

Craig Spodak
0:06:43
You're right. 2%. They were reporting 2%. They were reporting. And then you were talking about the Chapworth Index and the real inflation. And all you and I could do is echo the sentiments of our really smart friends that hey, you don't print trillions of dollars And at that time on the podcast that was referring to we were saying that 20% of the dollars in circulation We're not in circulation a year ago now. I don't know. It's 40 50 right Pete. I don't even know

Peter Boulden
0:07:04
It's 40% of the money supply has been in the entire since the existence of time

Craig Spodak
0:07:08
40% of the entire US dollars in circulation have been printed in the last two years Okay, so what we were talking about about a year ago- $10 trillion has been injected. So we were talking about 4 trillion at that podcast. And we're saying, hey, there's a problem coming. There's a problem coming. And it's not a self-congratulatory thing. It's just that we're blessed in that we have really great friends that know a lot more than we do. And it's like that thing where they say, show me your five friends, I'll show you your future. Think about the people in your circle and my circle. And we're watching those people like, damn, okay, we gotta bring this information to the podcast. And so now, I know it felt good for ordinary America to be given stimulus checks, but now that's gonna be paid back in gas prices and inflation and everything's moving. And I know you wanted to talk about something very specific today.

Peter Boulden
0:07:58
What was the Cantillon effect?

Craig Spodak
0:07:59
You ever heard of that? Yeah, of course, you talked about it.

Peter Boulden
0:08:02
Yeah, I did. That was the one you talked about Germany. What was that? Well, no, he was a French economist and essentially it basically said the money that's put out in the economy usually benefits the people closest to the king and he did a study on this in the 1700s. Right. And so what happened is the government did two things. It gave stimulus money, 400 billion only, I'm gonna put finger quotes only, at the bottom, right, where the cancel on would have gone down. But $4 trillion went up at the top. So the cancel on effect, so they finally met, essentially there was an injection of money at the bottom, but 10 times the money at the top. And so the people closest to quote unquote, the king, you know, the hedge funds, this is called the people who are oligarchs, if you will, in the United States, the money is finally trinkled down. And all this money now is now caused supply and demand. Right? And so that's why, that's what the Cantillon effect was predicting. But we're not going there. But what's interesting is, is now we've talked about that. We've talked about inflation, the Cantillon effect, all these things. And now here we are, Greg, where something that happened this weekend, the past three or four days, which everyone is talking about

Craig Spodak
0:09:09
in the financial markets, which is the inverted yield curve.

Peter Boulden
0:09:15
Okay, you heard this term?

Craig Spodak
0:09:16
You got to dumb this way down for me, Peter, because I don't understand anything you're talking about when you talk, I know you've talked about this before. It's a big deal. Yeah, I know, but you mentioned this to Peter Malik, you mentioned this like a year ago, this was something that you've talked about.

Peter Boulden
0:09:28
Well, it's,

Craig Spodak
0:09:29
What's happened?

Peter Boulden
0:09:30
It is a predictor that has been the most accurate predictor of recessions for the last 60 years.

Craig Spodak
0:09:38
Okay. It happened in 99, it happened in 2007, just to give people a reference in scope. Okay. And so what happens, Craig, is that when the yield curve, so here, I'll just break it down real small. So here is a yield curve, or take a two-year bond, okay? Okay. You would expect the yield is not very high because the shorter amount of time period that you're willing to risk as A, the guy who buys the bond, to get the government, whoever is the bond guarantor says, look, that's not that far long, that's not much risk for you,

Peter Boulden
0:10:13
therefore your yield is not that great.

Peter Boulden
0:10:15
Okay. Okay?

Peter Boulden
0:10:17
Now, if I say, well, what about 10 years? They say, well, shit, a lot can happen in 10 years

Craig Spodak
0:10:21
with a lot more risk.

Peter Boulden
0:10:22
I'm remembering this now.

Peter Boulden
0:10:23
Okay.

Craig Spodak
0:10:24
Yeah. So, so the yield is better short term than long, I mean, long term than, yeah.

Peter Boulden
0:10:30
Yeah. So when that, when that chart flips currently right now, today, the three month bond yields higher than the 10 year bond. So what this predicts Greg is that the market is pessimistic, pessimistic for the future. And this has predicted the last nine recessions. And so why I bring this up, it's a big deal, is that what it says is once there's an inversion of the yield curve for at least 10 days, there is a 66% chance in the next 12 months that there will be a recession. Oh my God, are we overdue for a correction?

Craig Spodak
0:11:08
And a 98% chance this one can happen in the next two years.

Peter Boulden
0:11:16
So basically everyone's putting their finger in the next 16 to 18 months. Essentially, there is going to be some kind of pullback.

Peter Boulden
0:11:23
Question.

Craig Spodak
0:11:24
Look Peter, if I would have asked you this a year ago, we had conversations between, very personal conversations you and I, one year ago this time. Remember those conversations, right Peter? Remember how we were sure as shit that we were gonna, we were at the top, top, top, top, top of the market on everything, remember, a year ago?

Craig Spodak
0:11:41
Yes.

Craig Spodak
0:11:42
And here we are, we added in a year.

Peter Boulden
0:11:44
And guess what?

Peter Boulden
0:11:45
We could still add in the next six, we could add right up until then. It still could melt up. Yeah, I know, I know.

Craig Spodak
0:11:51
And listen, the dot-com crash and the crash of the mid-2000s was predicted. It just didn't know when, they just didn't know when. So you can't predict the top.

Peter Boulden
0:12:03
And I think it's categorically different. I think the world, given what we also said, and given what we just said about 40% of the money supply, the ingredients for this cake are not the same as 99 in 2007. So will there be some kind of pullback? What's the ingredients?

Craig Spodak
0:12:20
Meaning there's so much more money,

Peter Boulden
0:12:22
there's a different economic climate, right? We're facing things like rising interest rates. There's a whole lot of things going on. So two things are going on. The Fed has announced we are going to increase interest rates over the next, there's gonna be nine more adjustments to the interest rates of probably 25 basis points or more over the next, what, couple of years. So it's just kind of to slow the market. So they are a one trick pony that says, hey, inflation is out of control. We know it. We're reporting it at nine. It's probably 15.

Craig Spodak
0:12:58
Right. You just can't say that because it will take.

Peter Boulden
0:13:00
The only thing, because it will ensue, what it will ensue is the velocity of money to increase because, and too fast, because people will then say, shit, I'm going to spend all my money because it's literally evaporating in my presence. Then the velocity increases, which means, you know, me and you exchanging it back and forth to each other, buying goods, increases, which then cause more inflation. So it's almost like they can't put the toothpaste back in the bottle at this point, but they're using all the tricks that they can. Congress is wanting to print more to stimulate out of it. The Fed, which is not a US entity, by the way, is not a federally mandated program, the Fed is actually supposed to be an independent entity, is saying, no, no, no, we need to raise interest rates to slow down the economy. And then you've got things like inverted yield curve saying, guess what, there's going to be a recession coming regardless. But what does that recession look like, given the aforementioned things that I just said, right? So, it is a scary time, not scary. And it's scary. It's a changing time.

Craig Spodak
0:14:02
But here's what I say. Here's, look, whenever you get information like that, it's like, okay, I understand. I understand. But like, what's in it for me? Like, what does this mean to me, the dentist? What does this mean to me, Peter Bolden, or you, Craig Spodak, or you, Bulletproof listener listening? It may mean nothing, but I said to myself, like when I put all this data together, I said, you know, this is probably going to be a time when I need to go head down and just build the business. Grow and build the business, optimize the business, get head down, possibly expand, possibly not. But like, there are things that I won't be able to control. The stock market in the next 16, 6 to 8 months, 18 months, who knows where that ends up, Craig. But guess what, I have zero control over that, right? I have zero control over the tax rate. Well, right, and also statistically speaking, you shouldn't get in or out of the market, you should actually stay the course. You should not try to time it, you should not try to go, I mean, statistically speaking, those who try to time the market don't do as well.

Peter Boulden
0:15:11
♪ You'll be my Andrew ♪

Craig Spodak
0:15:14
So, I am a, you know, Greg, I'm a big fan of data to the point where I think it can

Peter Boulden
0:15:25
help move the needles if you know what data you're looking for.

Craig Spodak
0:15:30
We are still using, are you still using dental intel?

Peter Boulden
0:15:32
Yes, of course. Yeah, of course. I think that's kind of the de facto standard at this point. And it's, like good, knowledge is only power, or what am I trying to say?

Craig Spodak
0:15:41
Yeah, knowledge is only power if you can execute on it. You gotta know what you're looking at. What I love about Dental Intel is they actually break down the information that's relevant, and they have all that, the statistics to show. So I'm not getting drowned in a bunch of data points. I'm seeing the most relevant data points, the hygiene recall rate, the daily collections,

Peter Boulden
0:15:59
daily production. The follow-ups is the massive. For us, that's the thing that moves the lever is like right your software will tell you like who's gone inactive But it doesn't help you Identify when they're about to and to assign it to someone to then reach out and make sure they don't go inactive From the follow perspective is that in my opinion the game changer For an analytic software

Craig Spodak
0:16:18
So I remember when you first got dental Intel and those lights flicked on for you You were just you went way down the rabbit. Yeah. Yeah, because it was solving pain points that I didn't know needed solving and then when it exposed me to it I couldn't unsee it. I couldn't put the toothpaste back in the bottle. But it's really helped. And then you saw my numbers by the way and you saw my death because remember I put you on my practice so you were getting my reports. Right. And I was doing at that time significantly better than you were and within a year or 18 months you crushed me.

Peter Boulden
0:16:52
Well of course, you gave me something to beat. What you focus on you beat and I was focusing on you.

Craig Spodak
0:16:58
You were playing a game with no scorecard. You were just going up there throwing really hard.

Peter Boulden
0:17:02
Well no, I think the ultimate metric and what's something I still look at daily to this day, daily, is the APPV number we call it in my practice, which is the Average Production Per Patient Visit. And that is like the overarching, one of the high level KPIs that I look at.

Peter Boulden
0:17:16
It just shows you that-

Craig Spodak
0:17:17
I used to do that by myself, by the way. No way, you did?

Craig Spodak
0:17:20
You computed it?

Craig Spodak
0:17:21
I computed it. It would take me, like what I get automatically via email, like daily or weekly now, I used to spend like a week to try to get one data point for. It was so hard.

Peter Boulden
0:17:30
Well, I mean, I guess you could.

Craig Spodak
0:17:32
But I mean, listen, it's a software that if you don't use and you don't pay attention to it, it's not going to provide you any. It doesn't help you. It doesn't help you. So I hear people like, oh yeah, you know, they don't really do what they're supposed to do. I'm like, no, they're supposed to give you data. You know, they're not gonna pick up the phones for you, but you know, the data is really important. And the first time I turned it on, it was a really enlightening experience and not all positive, but at least it gave me the parameters to know how to win, which is awesome. I know it did the same for you.

Peter Boulden
0:17:58
♪ It's gonna be put in through ♪

Craig Spodak
0:18:03
I just want to ask you a question, Peter. This is a, I would love to get your feedback on this and I'm trying to be careful the way I ask it because I don't want to shape it and I don't want to, I don't want to put my biases out here. There are practices right now that are booming, right? Record months, record businesses. A lot of my friends in either dentistry or in business are literally breaking every record they've ever broken. The first quarter of this year was record for a lot of people.

Peter Boulden
0:18:33
Every one of my practices, Craig, broke the highest record ever last month.

Peter Boulden
0:18:37
Every one of them.

Craig Spodak
0:18:38
Okay, so what would you, and I can't say that to my specific practice because of a doctor transition, but yes, we're busy, busy, busy. And had we not lost anybody, it would have been amazing. We would have easily crushed those records as well. So I'm also hearing, Peter, some of my friends that work in dental practices and saying, it's not that busy right now. I need to make a move. The practice is, the schedule is falling apart. Things aren't going as well in certain dental practices. Are you more concerned because you feel like, let me ask you if you disagree with this statement because I'm trying to be careful with it. Do you believe that this is a true statement? With things going really well globally on an economic level, if you have a practice or your practice is not doing as well, would that frighten you more for the coming correction?

Peter Boulden
0:19:31
Yes. Okay.

Craig Spodak
0:19:33
And then why? Because I feel like if, like you said, like you alluded to, this is even outside of dentistry. Like I have friends who own car dealerships and friends who sell airplanes and like you can't buy an airplane. So if you are not doing well in this quote unquote abundant time where successful nose to the ground operators or nose to the grindstone operators are crushing it everywhere you go. If you are not profiting in this scenario, I don't think it starts yielding better than mine. Got it. So you have, like if you're doing okay right now, you're not killing it, but you're doing okay. You're worried about your business. It's okay, but it's not really expanding, growing, not really doing well over the last three months. What do you say to that person, Peter? I say, okay, how will you fare with a 20% pullback? In your business. In your business. Meaning that I remember, I look back, I looked at my numbers from 2007 or six to 2009, the effects of the financial crisis was about a 22% reduction from my revenues, right? And that was the haircut. So if you can withstand that, and let's just assume, Craig, that the inverted yield curve is predicting that same thing that's gonna happen in some capacity, whether it's, who knows what it's gonna be, a cyber attack, maybe the next crisis or something, it's gonna be the precipitous for that.

Peter Boulden
0:21:04
Because obviously COVID,

Craig Spodak
0:21:05
we had that pullback for COVID in March when the stock market got crushed. So there will be a precipitating factor. So if that happens, and are you okay with a 20% pullback? Okay, so what if the answer is, no, I'm not.

Peter Boulden
0:21:20
No, I'm barely enough.

Craig Spodak
0:21:21
Right now, it hasn't been good these last year, and specifically these last three months have been very difficult. What's your advice to that person? Well, I would say, are you burning? Are you losing market share? Are you flatlining or are you losing market share? Meaning active number of new patients, which is your market share, which is the value of your practice essentially,

Peter Boulden
0:21:48
is the number of active people.

Peter Boulden
0:21:50
And I would say, if you're losing that,

Craig Spodak
0:21:51
if there's an attrition over time, and if it's trending to zero, then now may be a time to consider why money, why interest rates are still somewhat low compared to what they could be, which means that valuations are high, right? There's an inverse relationship, Craig, with the valuation of your dental practice

Peter Boulden
0:22:12
and interest rates. The lower the interest rates-

Craig Spodak
0:22:14
Where are you going with this? Where are you going? What are you saying to this person?

Peter Boulden
0:22:16
I'm saying-

Craig Spodak
0:22:16
You're saying to consider selling?

Peter Boulden
0:22:19
Yes.

Craig Spodak
0:22:19
Okay.

Peter Boulden
0:22:19
Or onboarding a partner or looking for some kind of help because acknowledging that you're not doing well in a climate where a lot of people are, I mean, wouldn't you agree, Craig, every entrepreneur outside of dentistry or even in dentistry, the people who are doing well in dentistry before this are crushing it now. Would you not agree?

Craig Spodak
0:22:43
Yes, but I just think that when people do well, yours truly included, we tend to blame ourselves for why we're doing well and when we do poorly we blame the economy So I think a lot of people are fooling themselves to say like oh, I'm a I'm the Bill Gates of dentistry We're so busy. You know, but it's really you know point to everybody all the restaurants down here. Everybody is slammed I've met slammed restaurants Evers now personal trainers hotels find a share line flight. It's not doing well.

Peter Boulden
0:23:18
So that's my point.

Craig Spodak
0:23:19
But I am hearing dental practices, some of them, saying we're not doing well.

Peter Boulden
0:23:22
Okay, so that's fine. So either this is a come to Jesus moment for said person. It is everything else in a discretionary standpoint. And like you've always said, dentistry is discretionary except the extraction. Right? It's not medically necessary. Dentistry is discretionary. If everything else discretionary is crushing it, why aren't I?

Peter Boulden
0:23:43
Why aren't I?

Peter Boulden
0:23:44
Okay, and if I'm not, what am I gonna change about the formula that I'm doing now, and I'm gonna potentially be going into an uphill battle with this inverted yield curve, what am I gonna do to insulate myself from the pullback if there is to be one?

Craig Spodak
0:23:59
And if you don't have good answers for that. Sign up for the summit.

Peter Boulden
0:24:05
Sign up for summit. No, if you, well.

Peter Boulden
0:24:09
Why not?

Peter Boulden
0:24:10
Okay, if you don't have good answers for that, whether you're gonna change your marketing or onboard your team or whatever it is, then you need to find someone who can either, you can hold hands and join forces with, or consider that like now may be the peak of where you are. And I'm not advocating for anyone to sell. I'm just saying, look, not, not acknowledging your options is, is just ignorant, just ignorant. To not say like, okay, this is what's coming. Get your head up out of the sand and say, okay, here are my options. I don't like where I am now. Probably not going to like it more in the next 18 months, given the, given this data, that if you look at the macro climate, macro financial climate, so you're not going to like it more. So maybe now is a good time to consider onboarding a partner or selling a fractional share of your practice

Craig Spodak
0:24:55
or getting a consultant to really help you. Or hang under the helm too. Free inputs. Hang under the helm and go through the storm too. That's kind of cool too. Do what? Hold onto the helm and go through the storm as well.

Peter Boulden
0:25:06
Yeah, but Craig, let's just say that person doesn't have the war chest to grab onto the helm as you say and have fun going through the storm. It's not fun to go through a storm when your boat has already got leaks in it.

Craig Spodak
0:25:19
Right, that's true. So you want to be ready. No, that's a good point. So like make sure you have an emergency funnel. Now what happens? I just wanted to bring it to that because I've heard of that. Now tell me, how does the inverse yield curve get corrected? How, what's the mechanism that points to be going out of the storm? Or you don't have that information?

Peter Boulden
0:25:41
Well, interest rates have to rise, right? There has to be better yield created for a longer term money than the shorter term money. And so, but it's only a short period of time. Like I said, it only has to happen for 10 days.

Peter Boulden
0:25:55
And so it's not gonna be inverted forever,

Peter Boulden
0:25:57
but when it is, it's a harbinger, harbinger?

Craig Spodak
0:26:03
Harbinger, yeah.

Peter Boulden
0:26:04
Harbinger of a foretelling of what's going to happen in the next, like I said, six to 18 months. But Craig, this could, I want to make sure this is crystal clear for everyone. I am not saying that this is going to look like 2009. I'm actually not saying I know anything that's happening. I just know that history has proven time and time again that this happens, but will it look the same given that our money supply is three times the amount as it was in 2009. I don't know.

18
0:26:30
I have no answers.

Peter Boulden
0:26:31
And if I did, I sure as hell wouldn't be sitting here podcasting or running demo practices, right? I knew what was gonna happen. I'm just saying, I'm trying to put all the pieces together

Craig Spodak
0:26:39
just like you.

Peter Boulden
0:26:40
So it's an interesting time.

Peter Boulden
0:26:42
I think it's one of those times that you calibrate

Peter Boulden
0:26:44
where you are, you're happy, great, but form a strategy. Form a strategy, form a plan of what you're gonna do because this is what I do. I don't just gather information so that I can just hypothesize about sounding cool and know what I'm talking about. I gather information so that I can strategize about my next five moves.

Peter Boulden
0:27:06
What does that look like?

Peter Boulden
0:27:07
And if this happens, then I will do this. If this happens, then I will do this. It's always contingencies for me in the next five moves. Because having a plan and then getting punched in the face and then just stopping is like, that's not really a plan. You need to have contingencies to be able to pop and move and weave. So, I don't know.

Craig Spodak
0:27:26
That's kind of where I am, bud.

Peter Boulden
0:27:28
Yeah, I mean, for me,

Craig Spodak
0:27:30
having gone through so many different times, I've always made moves in the down times, personally. I've always been excited when winter comes because, I mean, like, look at the move I made on March 23rd in COVID 2020. I got scared, but I did it. I bought the largest position of the S&P I ever had in the face of it falling the furthest. You know, when assets are the thing, when they go on sale, people run from them, which is so strange. You know, when Nike's go on sale, or Black Friday sales, people wait outside to buy. But when Assets go on sale, everybody's like, they wanna dump everything. So- People get scared, they drop things, right? Yeah, I know, the best time to buy is when it's flooded. Yeah.

Peter Boulden
0:28:15
The flight to cash.

Peter Boulden
0:28:16
Right.

Craig Spodak
0:28:17
Well, and that's another interesting thing. You know, like, gold used to be the safe haven. And look, if you'd invested in gold 10 years ago, you'd be down, you'd be down on your money. It's flat, it's flat.

Peter Boulden
0:28:29
You know, Bitcoin hasn't, didn't perform the way I thought it would do as this safe harbor uncorrelated asset. Now we're in a different macro trend right now. So I think it will do really well going here forward.

Peter Boulden
0:28:42
But like, it's just scary.

Peter Boulden
0:28:44
Like you said, you said, look, look,

Craig Spodak
0:28:45
I get excited when winter is coming.

Peter Boulden
0:28:49
I do.

Craig Spodak
0:28:50
Maybe that was because last time winter came, I was younger. But now I do agree that it's for me, when everybody's going one way, I want to go the opposite way. And I think it's an important time, from a personal standpoint, to have cash. The good thing is, Greg, what's one good thing about it? Having dry powder can be helpful. Here's one good thing I see about the difference between, let's say, potentially now in 2007. 2007, eight, nine, there was a crisis in the real estate market, right? Commercial and otherwise. And that was because of the whole, everyone should be a homeowner. That was the American dream. And they made the legislation so that people unfortunately took advantage of that situation. Dogs were getting homes and cash back at closing and things like that. Literally, dogs names, they weren't doing any credit checks, nothing. You've all seen, what's that, the big short? They fixed that. And so you still, meaning it didn't revert back. And yes, to get a home, you don't need as much money as you did right after 2009, but commercial properties are probably going to be still sound. So it's not going to look like this on sale stuff, like what the housing crisis was in 2009, especially given the, like I said, the amount of currency in the market. So what's Michael Burry saying right now? But the guy from the big short, Michael Burry, what's he saying now? I don't know. Is he a Bitcoin maximalist?

Craig Spodak
0:30:20
I don't know.

Craig Spodak
0:30:21
No, he's definitely not a Bitcoin maximalist. He actually predicted. He's been wrong so many times since then. I think that was his one. He's been, I mean, he literally got lucky one time and look, he got lucky big, but like, it doesn't, you know, being right one time doesn't make you the, uh, the, the, the prognosticator that just, you know, Nostradamus of financial information.

Peter Boulden
0:30:43
So I don't know.

Peter Boulden
0:30:44
I feel like I'm beating this down to the level where I just think, I think I wanted to talk about this because I think awareness is really cool for people. And I think awareness brings things that someone may, we may have mentioned something that someone listening may not have known about was even exist and it may have piqued their curiosity to then dig in. And now they can protect them and their family potentially by learning and just becoming aware of things outside of the dental office that may affect the things inside the dental office, right? And how are you going to, what is your plan to insulate? If there's a pullback, what is your plan? If there's a melt up, what's your plan? If nothing happens, what is your plan? You know, so that's it. But I agree with you too, Craig, that recessions, quote, unquote, are an excellent time for expansions if that's the time you're wanting to do. Because everyone coils up in those times, shrinks up, and they grab onto their assets and they hold them tight.

Craig Spodak
0:31:47
Yeah, the reason why people, the reason why a lot of advertisers suspend their budgets from TV right around the Super Bowl is because that's the most premium time. You're not going to compete, or political seasons, you can't compete with the political parties. So it's just funny that when the herd goes one way, we always tend to just go the same way. This is a time when you can look, if we do go through it, you know, or I shouldn't say if, or when we go through it, to recognize that your voice will go further, your advertising dollars will go further, your expansion will go further. I remember during the crisis, there was a little-

Peter Boulden
0:32:21
It'll go further, you're saying it'll go further because there are people sitting on the sidelines. The game still has to be played, but people are gonna sit on the sidelines.

Craig Spodak
0:32:30
So, they do this every year. And a lot of this psychological defeat, by the way, Peter, I remember going to this little Placeco sandwich shop, and I used to love it. This was like 2008, nine, whenever the crash was, we got hit particularly hard in Florida. But I remember going to this place, it was some little cafe here in downtown Delray, and I remember going there and always really enjoying everything, and enjoying the service, and enjoying the responsiveness of the team and all that stuff. And then I went there, there was a recession, and the guy's like really busy and he can't keep up with everything. And I'm like, well, what's going on here? He's like, well, you know, with the recession, I wanted to laugh a couple of my people. I was like, well, did you find your business being down? He goes, no, but you know, I have reading in Wealth Magazine and strategies for a recession. And so he preemptively shrank in anticipation of a perception that his knees would go down, and he literally f***ed his business up.

Peter Boulden
0:33:22
That is not the truth. I don't think you take action until you have evidence of one way or the other. But it is nice to just, like I said, and this is the third time I've said it, a plan is probably necessary to be created. And that's why, you know, honestly, Craig, the things that you are, you're passionate about, your vision, you know, and helping people create their vision and their true authentic self and like digging into that or mastermind it, and I know you're doing a big, big track on that at Summit. It's really important because we always talk about the North Star, and if you know your North Star, right, and you know where you want to go, and you know your true purpose, all these things, and you get hit by these bullets, so to speak, you can still look up and be like, all right, well, it doesn't matter. There's a recession here, there's a recession in 99, there's stuff, you know, money, blah, blah, blah. I don't really care, because here's where I'm headed, and this is what I really, really want to do.

Craig Spodak
0:34:15
Well, it's the very definition of being bulletproof. Bulletproof implies you're being shot at. They hit you, they deflect. So being bulletproof is persisting through the face of adversity. It's not about not going through adversity. I mean, geez, that's what makes us all happy is the adversity. We're not meant to be living safe lives. In fact, we're too safe these days. That's why I think a lot of people are unhappy. Life is too cushy right now. We're actually making it harder. Human beings are making it hard on themselves right now because it's just, in some ways, if you were dropped off. I mean, I was listening to Joe Rogan the other day and he's like talking, if you were just dropped off a thousand years ago. You probably end your life You probably look at the way you're living you wouldn't be able to handle it You know a thousand years ago people, you know dying by sword and there's a few losses. I would have thrived Well, who knows? I mean we'd be well past the prime and a thousand years ago But all I'm saying is it is it's not that adversity shouldn't come your way It's just that you person you persevere through it And I think that's the very core about what being bulletproof is, is just to be able to face adversity, go through it, and come up better for it.

Craig Spodak
0:35:20
Right.

Peter Boulden
0:35:21
Just think of all the splinters you would have gotten a thousand years ago.

Peter Boulden
0:35:24
Yeah, I know.

Peter Boulden
0:35:25
Look at this splinter I got.

Craig Spodak
0:35:27
Yeah.

Craig Spodak
0:35:28
What was that a reference to? Like my hands when I was way 40. Yeah, no, you were at my lake house and you're like, I can't hold the rope. I can't hold the rope.

Peter Boulden
0:35:34
I got this, I got a splinter in your ports.

Craig Spodak
0:35:36
Look at this. No, no, no. My hand was cut open. It was a blister. You can tell the people the medicament you recommended I use being a medical doctor. Don't say what it was. But it was not something that a dentist normally prescribes, at least not in my practice. No, no, it's an over-the-counter medicament. Topical cream, yeah. It was not flattering. And it didn't work, by the way.

Craig Spodak
0:36:01
It did not work.

Peter Boulden
0:36:02
The funny part is you actually tried. This isn't working.

Craig Spodak
0:36:05
I know.

Peter Boulden
0:36:06
I didn't try.

Craig Spodak
0:36:07
So guess what I'm excited about? I was doing this morning, working on the Summit presentation.

Peter Boulden
0:36:14
No way.

Peter Boulden
0:36:15
Yeah.

Craig Spodak
0:36:16
Chris Ramsey, Rob Ritter, Jenny Perna, Uchi Odeyatu.

Craig Spodak
0:36:21
He confirmed?

Craig Spodak
0:36:22
He did. Dude, Uchi, I saw him at Henman and like standing room only I was gonna How do you know that cuz he never freaking speaks? I've never had a seat at one of his events

Peter Boulden
0:36:36
It's always standing room literally like if it wasn't for him. I mean him and the dancing dentist What was his name that we have Constantine? Yeah, yeah Constantine. I got to meet him and he's a cool dude That's coming out that pods coming up But like he had standing room and Gucci like yeah, and Gucci was kind of next to the bulletproof, the pod thing they gave us. And I could see like this, everyone just standing hooping on. And like, I don't know Uchi, never heard him speak. I'm really, really, really, and even my office manager was like, you have to get proximity. You have to talk to Uchi.

Peter Boulden
0:37:08
He's amazing.

Craig Spoda
0:37:09
And I was like,

Craig Spodak
0:37:10
I mean, he's like, he was the keynote speaker at the, I don't even want to represent, I don't even know what it is. He's been,

Peter Boulden
0:37:17
he's going down the talent.

Peter Boulden
0:37:18
I love it.

Craig Spodak
0:37:19
Cause so Ramsey Ritter,

Craig Spodak
0:37:20
obviously just separately by the way, cause they both have in our field. Yeah. Oh geez. They both have individual tracks. Yogi dentist, Uchi's up there. He's going to be doing a keynote for us and he doesn't know it yet, but he's gonna be doing a track as well. Such a badass. I'm just excited about it because it's all new content. Oh, you know who else is coming?

Peter Boulden
0:37:42
Actually, listen to this.

Craig Spodak
0:37:43
Tell me what I know now.

Peter Boulden
0:37:44
So, you know how Nathan French, you know, talks about videos.

Peter Boulden
0:37:47
Yeah, of course.

Peter Boulden
0:37:48
Bo, Bo is coming this year. Bo is my videographer who's actually decided to go on to other endeavors because he's blowing up so much, which is great, right? I actually was really happy for him that he wanted to because it means his life is expanding.

Craig Spodak
0:38:04
Tens of millions of followers on TikTok.

Peter Boulden
0:38:06
Yeah.

Craig Spodak
0:38:06
You can't be the videographer of a dental practice when you're-

Peter Boulden
0:38:08
You can't. And I didn't want him to be that forever. So I'm happy that he spread his wings.

Craig Spodak
0:38:12
You can't be a hygienist and work with Oprah.

Peter Boulden
0:38:15
Well, Greg, he got us a video on TikTok of the practice that I think I told you now. It has 67 million views. He did it from the point of view of a seven footer. And so he's actually going to be coming to teach some kind of tips and tricks for TikTok. I'm like how to do things as a videographer, but also as a talent and really help dentists kind of go next level. So, I mean, putting him and Nate together about Nate talking about doing tons of video production and then creating awareness on that video production. And then Bo looking from an organic standpoint on how to kind of frame things. It's like, it's a star-studded event, Greg.

Peter Boulden
0:38:53
I know.

Peter Boulden
0:38:54
You and I are literally just gonna be sitting in the back, like wondering what the hell to talk on.

Peter Boulden
0:38:57
No, that's not true. I don't know, bud.

Craig Spodak
0:38:59
You know me, I can never be, I'm never short of words. No, no. But I am excited to have that event. I am excited to see what unfolds for the economy too. I mean, listen, we get a lot of feedback about what we're doing, but nothing matters more than reading your comments. I know Peter and I both read them. So if you agree with us, please comment below. If you vehemently disagree, we want your counterpoint. We really would love counterpoints to everything we say. So if there's something that Peter or I just said that you're like, that is totally bullshit. And especially to stand correcting,

Peter Boulden
0:39:32
meaning we don't stand to be the ones who are the know-it-alls, like you corrected yourself on that Howard Frank comment.

Craig Spodak
0:39:39
Yeah, I had no idea. I've never done his dental MBA thing, and who am I to speak? I just heard that he said that. So this is not just a monologue, it's a dialogue with our community, and that's what makes it powerful. Not only what we do on the Mighty Network, but if you're seeing this on YouTube or whatever, please comment below as well.

Peter Boulden
0:39:55
That's awesome.

Peter Boulden
0:39:56
Yeah, I'm excited for that. And yeah, dude, there's so much fun going on. We'll save some of these.

Peter Boulden
0:40:05
Hey, by the way, my Biohacks, my one through four Biohacks podcast are coming out soon. Cool. That I told you I wanted to fly on because you had been like, what the hell's wrong with you? So hopefully I don't let you down, buddy,

Craig Spodak
0:40:19
when you listen to it. Yeah, you would lose me. I'm just like, just give me the goddamn

Peter Boulden
0:40:22
one, we'll take it. No, it'd be cool. The first one's on sleep, and it's such a powerful one.

Craig Spodak
0:40:26
It's such a good one in sleep and diet and biohacks. Are you wearing your aura ring right now, by the way?

Peter Boulden
0:40:31
I am.

Craig Spodak
0:40:32
Me too. So that's an aura ring. Not that they sponsor us or anything like that.

Peter Boulden
0:40:35
No, they do not sponsor us. But that's coming out. And that's just gonna be a bonus episode. Look, it's not lost. I told Lacey, I was like, look, it's not lost on me that this is a dental podcast. We're not trying to get them to be economists or biohackers or whatever, but I think it's really cool because we, oh my gosh, great score. Good for you. You know why you have that score, by the way?

Craig Spodak
0:40:58
Why?

Craig Spodak
0:40:59
Not because of gummies. No, but what's readiness of 92 mean?

Craig Spodak
0:41:03
What does that mean?

Peter Boulden
0:41:04
It means you are ready to roll. So Aura is an excellent, excellent sleep monitor. It's pretty shitty, in my opinion.

Craig Spodak
0:41:11
Are you gonna talk about HRV and all that shit?

Peter Boulden
0:41:13
HRV is great, HRV, right?

Craig Spodak
0:41:15
Like during your biohack thing,

Craig Spodak
0:41:17
because I don't even understand that stuff.

Peter Boulden
0:41:17
No, I didn't talk about that, because there's no need to. But that is an indication of your readiness. But your readiness, it means you are ready to tackle the day.

Craig Spodak
0:41:26
Yeah, it just says I have a 92 optimal readiness. 92 is like a great goal. But you also probably have enhanced that tremendously, Craig, by some of the other tips I've given you. And I'm sure from that chili pad the chili pad is you know I'm not using the chili pad my chili pad leaked Shut the yeah, it's freaking leak, bro. It leaked all over my bed Yeah, they sent me. I just haven't said it sounds like user error to me What the hell do I do on my bed that would cause it to leak you just didn't snap the components in right now I thought I put my down no no no no No, so anyway, did you get a replacement? Yeah, they sent me a replacement, just haven't put it on yet.

Peter Boulden
0:42:06
All right.

Craig Spodak
0:42:07
Yeah, I'm not using the ChiliPad, but I do.

Peter Boulden
0:42:09
The biggest hack that I've made, I don't wanna spoil what the thing is, is I'll give you a hint on why to listen to this, is that the biggest disruptor of your sleep is your iPhone.

Craig Spodak
0:42:20
And I won't tell you why.

Peter Boulden
0:42:22
But you probably know.

Craig Spodak
0:42:23
You've told me, you've told me.

Peter Boulden
0:42:25
Blue light. It suppresses your melatonin secretion by three hours. I know.

Craig Spodak
0:42:31
And I give ways in that pod on how to, because I like to do, I like to chill on my phone right before bed

Peter Boulden
0:42:37
and look at things.

Craig Spodak
0:42:38
You know as much as I do, man.

Peter Boulden
0:42:40
I counteract it.

Craig Spodak
0:42:41
I know you're hot and heavy on the socials,

Peter Boulden
0:42:44
on the socials right before bed.

Craig Spodak
0:42:45
Yeah, mine like dental disrupt nation, like literally writing a response and then deleting it Like when people like dentistry sucks and people don't show up for their interview I Janice fault the hygiene the hygiene these girls are terrible blood on their hands Yeah, yeah, I remember that one. Oh my god Just like it's like watching what yeah terrible anyway shout out everybody try to improve dentistry. They're all doing their own way Yeah, well, okay. All right, everybody, we'll see you next time on the Bulletproof Podcast. See, that was an appropriate exit out of the podcast. We didn't have an appropriate intro. Yeah, maybe not a good intro, but a good exit. appropriate intro. Yeah, maybe not a good intro, but a good exit.

Peter Boulden
0:43:24
It's okay. See you, everyone. See ya.

Transcribed with Cockatoo